The Melting Blog

Rockin' the Vote? Latino and Asian Voters in 2004

Wow, check this out: no less than the venerable Urban Institute has released a study today examining the likely impact Asian and Latino voters will have on the upcoming elections. Here are some highlights:

* Latino and Asian vote is rising. While the number of votes cast by whites in the presidential election rose by only 4.3 percent between 1996 and 2000,1 the number of Asian votes rose by 22 percent. Hispanic votes increased by 19 percent.

The Asian and Latino populations are heavily dominated by immigrants: 64 percent of Asians are foreign-born as are 40 percent of Latinos. In contrast, only 3 percent of whites are immigrants.

* Latino and Asian vote is not proportional to population. Latinos represented 12.6 percent of the total U.S. population in 2000, but only 5.3 percent of the votes cast. Asians were 4.2 percent of the population versus 1.9 percent of votes. In contrast, whites accounted for 70 percent of the population, but over 81 percent of all votes.

In 2004, the Latino share of votes could increase to 6.1 percent solely because of population growth (i.e., with no changes in registration or turnout). For Asians, population growth could increase their share to 2.4 percent.

* Demographic factors dilute Latino and Asian vote. About 62 percent of Latinos could not register to vote in 2000 because they were either too young or not U.S. citizens; 59 percent of Asians could not register. In contrast, only 35 percent of blacks and 25 percent of whites could not register to vote for demographic reasons.

* Naturalization remains a key factor. Legal Latino immigrants are much less likely to become U.S. citizens than other immigrants; only 38 percent had done so by 2000 versus almost 60 percent of other immigrants. If Latinos had naturalized at the same rate as other immigrants, approximately 700,000 additional Latino votes would have been cast in 2000. Another one million Latino votes could be added in 2004, if the naturalization rate were on par with other immigrants.

* Voter registration lags at every age. Latino and Asian citizens are considerably less likely to register to vote than whites and blacks, at every age. If Latinos had registered at the same rate as white citizens, the result would have been approximately one million more Latino votes cast in 2000. Asians would have 500,000 additional voters if they had registered at the same rate as white citizens.

* Lower turnout also translates into loss of potential votes. Latino citizens who register are less likely to vote than whites. If Latinos had turned out to vote at the same rate as white citizens, the result would have been almost 700,000 more Latino votes cast in 2000. Asian turnout levels are higher, but turnout as high as whites would still have added about 200,000 new Asian voters.

Check out the whole thing. Download the entire report here.

Posted by thomas at July 27, 2004 06:49 PM | TrackBack