August 18, 2004

The Emerging Democratic Majority

With November 2 right around the corner and the Presidential race still too close to call, MTV today announced the launch of Voto Latino™ in an effort to mobilize the nation's Latino youth. The bilingual campaign, part of MTV's "Choose or Lose" initiative, and launched with the support of celebrities Rosario Dawson and Fat Joe, will be comprised of PSA spots encouraging second generation Latinos to vote in the upcoming elections:

    According to Phil Colón, co-founder and interim executive director, the campaign is about “bringing Latino youth together through a shared philosophy of fair representation in our country’s political process. It means putting aside nationality differences and forging a common U.S. Latino identity and political agenda. Our goal this year is to help mobilize one million young Latinos to vote by complementing the on-the-ground efforts of Latino and other youth-focused organizations with on-air and online messaging that speaks directly to second-generation Latinos. Young Latinos will help decide this presidential election.”

You can see Rosario Dawson's PSA spot here.

So how does the 2004 Presidential Horse Race stack up among ethnic voters right now? Here are a few updates gathered from the latest research polls around the country:

    THE HISPANIC VOTE

    Among likely Latino voters, Kerry leads over Bush about 2 to 1 -- 60% to 30% to be precise. Latinos may be 13 percent of the country, but they comprise only 5 to 6 percent of the national electorate. Nevertheless, they're well represented in key swing states in the Southwest, and it's all about capturing those almighty electoral college votes there. Both parties are lobbying hard for the Hispanic vote in these battleground areas. For Republicans, it's about getting just enough support to tilt the scale of those states -- New Mexico, Arizona, Florida (remember them?) -- Red. Dubya did successfully manage to do that back in 2000, but I doubt he'll pull it off this time around. (Source: Univision/Tomas Rivera/Washington Post poll)

    THE AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE

    Black voters -- 10% of the electorate -- are lopsidedly in favor of Kerry over Bush, about 8 to 1. Hardly surprising, and many of these voters are still bitter about the Florida 2000 controversy. God bless 'em. Despite the one-sided match up here, the Bush campaign is making a big push to gain at least a few of their votes, esp. in key battleground states like Ohio and Michigan. Again, it's for purposes of picking up just enough to tip the ever-so-delicate balance of these states in their favor. I'll tell you one thing, Alan Keyes ain't helping their cause. (Source: BET/CBS poll)

    THE AMERICAN JEWISH VOTE

    The Jewish vote is at more than 3 to 1 -- 75% to 22% -- in favor of Kerry. Pretty much the same as 2000, solidly in the Dems corner. (Source: National Jewish Democratic Council)

    THE ASIAN AMERICAN VOTE

    Sadly, no polling data is available on the Asian American vote (about 2 to 2.4% of the total electorate; 4.5% of the U.S. population). Although this is a group that is twice the size of the U.S. Jewish population, there's considerably lower voter participation rates for a number of reasons. While Asian American voter participation rates are roughly equivalent to the proportional levels of Latinos, most Asian Americans do not reside in critical battleground states (California, New York, and Hawaii are decidedly Blue). Plus, I'm certain the linguistic diversity of this population scares away pollers. (Next time, hire us! -- ed) So what does this mean? Basically, a lack of political clout as a voting bloc, but as a potential viable resource to tap into for campaign fundraising (which I know through direct sources John Edwards has effectively courted fer sure).

    Nevertheless, I'm going to use the Dad Meter here to gauge the temperature swing of the Asian vote: My pops has voted Republican as far back as I can remember (he came here in 1963). This year, however, he's breaking ranks for the first time and casting his lot with Kerry. My pops *disdains* Bush. In 2000, the Asian American vote went 55% to 41% in favor of the Dems -- generally reflecting an upward trend for Democrats over the past several election seasons. Thus, expect over 60 percent support this time around. You heard it here first.

    On the other hand, my moms -- a registered Democrat all her life -- is voting Elephant this November. So go figure.

    THE U.S. MUSLIM VOTE

    Someone has actually tracked the U.S. Muslim vote believe it or not. American Muslim voters -- who gave Bush 55% of their vote 2000 -- say they are giving 54% of their votes to Kerry this time around, and an astonishing 26% to Nader. Only 3% support Bush this time around. An almost unheard of turnaround if you ask me. (Source: Council of American-Islamic Relations)


Posted by thomas at August 18, 2004 01:03 PM | TrackBack