October 14, 2004
Florida's Political Orientation
As the state that pretty much determined the outcome of the 2000 elections (by only 500 some votes remember), the spotlight is once again on Florida. This time around, no potential vote is being left unturned by either party -- and this includes some key ethnic constituencies who don't normally get the kind of attention they're now getting from both Democrats or Republicans. Arab, Haitian, and Cuban-American voters may very well determine how this battleground state swings in November and which candidate will receive Florida's prized 27 electoral votes. WaPo has the details:
- This is the topsy-turvy, up-is-down world of Florida presidential politics less than three weeks before the state that made 2000 the messiest presidential election in recent history returns to the polls to choose between Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.). Haitian Americans, once solidly Democratic, are in play for the GOP. Arab Americans, once reliably Republican, are nudging toward the Democratic ticket. Cuban Americans, a staple of the GOP, are considered gettable by Democrats. Moving even small numbers of these minority voters -- either to the polls for the first time or into a different party's vote-tally column -- could have a huge impact during this closest of battleground races in this closest of presidential elections.
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"How many of these people who registered are going to vote?" asked Taleb Salhab, president of the Arab American Community Center, based in Orlando. "At the end of the day, this election is going to be about turnout."
The excruciatingly close margins have given a sense of possibilities to tiny factions as the Oct. 18 start of the state's first foray into early voting for a presidential election approaches. Haitian Americans with an estimated 150,000 voters and Arab Americans with 100,000 are eye-drops among the state's 9 million voters. But Florida politics is as much a game of tiny gains this year as giant leaps. Countless small to medium-size tightly to loosely organized groups are wielding unprecedented influence. A state once dominated by the politics of big unions and other large stalwarts of the political landscape has given over, in part, to a kaleidoscope of thinly nonpartisan "527" groups, hip-hop crusaders and small-scale upstart activists.
The article goes on to note that while Cuban Americans used to comprise 80 percent of Florida's Hispanic electorate back in 2000, they now make up just half. This will have some significance in shaping the outcome since Cubans slant towards the GOP, while other Latinos slightly favor the Dems. Nevertheless, these are strange times we live in, and Cubans -- like Arab Americans (another group that used to be solidly in the Republican camp) -- have become increasingly disillusioned with Dubya.
Originally spoted at Negrophile.
Posted by thomas at October 14, 2004 02:03 PM | TrackBack